There's lots of buzz about Rick Santorum getting knocked out of the Senate next year.
And why not? He's a big deal: third-highest Republican, potential presidential candidate; he'd be political
payback for Tom Daschle.
And he seems to be slipping.
Stumping the state for the president's Social Security "reform," showboating on the Schiavo case (while
raising campaign dough), ducking the cost of Pennsylvania resources to educate his kids who live in Virginia, and just being
Rick Santorum, is taking its toll.
A statewide Quinnipiac poll shows Bob Casey Jr. - who has said nothing and done nothing other than not be
Rick Santorum - with a 14-point, 49-35, lead in a race already getting national notice.
Well, here's a word of caution.
Incumbency. As an incumbent in Senate leadership, Santorum has fund-raising reach that Casey can't touch.
He has $3 million, just to get started. Casey has next to nothing. Santorum will raise whatever it takes,
$25 million or more. Casey may or may not.
Special interests care a lot less about ideology than clout. What special interest is anxious to invest
in a freshman when a member of leadership's on the ballot?
And the way that incumbents write campaign law makes it easy for them to stay incumbents. My favorite example
is air travel.
Federal law since airline deregulation in the '70s allows use of corporate jets so long as the corporation
is re-paid the cost of a first-class commercial ticket.
This is laughable. It's theft of services by politicians, a huge corporate gift on the part of jet owners,
and extremely advantageous to Santorum. Here's why:
Santorum's a nationally known, pro-business, conservative Republican with real power to affect legislation.
Casey is the treasurer of Pennsylvania. If you're a CEO, who'd you let borrow your jet? And, brother, a jet is a good thing
to borrow.
For example: when Santorum last month did fund-raisers for two days in Florida, he used a Wal-Mart jet.
Stops included Orlando, Miami, Tampa and Palm Beach.
Think of the time and airport hassle this would mean on commercial flights. Saving that alone is worth a
bundle. Then there's the numbers.
Private jets can cost $35 million. Oh, OK, you can get a used 2000 Astra/Gulfstream SPX for $8.9 million.
But still, operating costs - storage, pilots, fuel, maintenance, flight time - are enormous.
Blue Star Jets of New York tells me jet charters can cost $5,000 an hour and conservatively estimates a
trip like Santorum's at $18,000.
But because campaign law puts reimbursement at the lowest non-discounted first-class fare, it likely cost
Santorum about $3,500.
I say likely because getting any number is problematic.
A Federal Election Commission spokesman says FEC regulations "don't give much guidance" for candidates pricing
first-class tickets.
And travel agent manager Julie Steinberg of Rosenbluth Travel in Philadelphia says, "You can't put a finite
price on first class, it doesn't exist anymore."
Because of ever-changing fares, there are no rules, she says: "A price could be here today, gone tomorrow."
(The Santorum campaign says it's paying Wal-Mart about $3,300.)
Still, by estimates from various travel services, there's a difference approaching $15,000 between using
a private jet and commercial flights to do Santorum's trip.
That easily exceeds the federal limit of $10,000 that political action committees can give candidates per
election cycle - yet does not count against a PAC's giving ceiling. Wal-Mart's PAC, for example, gave Santorum $10,000 at
the end of last year.
The law in this regard is a joke. It allows corporations to give above and beyond federal limits and to
give gifts of time and convenience far more valuable to a campaigning politician than saving ticket costs.
Until the law is changed - and I'm not holding my breath - incumbents, especially in majority leadership
posts, hold a huge campaign edge, regardless of what any buzz or early polling says.
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