Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll is trailing blood in the water, but the sharks circling around her might be
getting overconfident.
Despite her problems -- frequent gaffes, her exclusion from policy decisions or government influence, the
fact that her office personnel decisions are heavily influenced by her son Albert, a Washington-based lobbyist for Sunoco
-- it's not clear that Gov. Ed Rendell will help someone oust her, and it's probably 60-40 she'll remain on the ticket, even
if someone tries.
And a lot of people are trying. The list includes Allen Kukovich, the former Westmoreland County state senator,
now the governor's representative in western Pennsylvania. Also, former Lt. Gov. Mark Singel, General Services Secretary Don
Cunningham, former Treasurer and Auditor General Barbara Hafer. All are pursuing what some call a two-tier "statewide" strategy.
All four are telling power brokers they want to run statewide in 2006, either to challenge U.S. Sen. Rick
Santorum in the fall election or Baker Knoll in the primary.
All four believe Gov. Ed Rendell, while feigning neutrality, will help them oust Baker Knoll if they become
his stealth pick for the sidekick job.
All four know that national Democrats are hungry to oust Santorum and will fund anyone they perceive as capable
of targeting the senator, the favorite dart board picture for Pennsylvania Democratic loyalists.
And all four know that they have to wait to see what Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. decides first. Because Casey,
many loyalists believe, is now genuinely interested in challenging Santorum, and if he agrees to do that, Rendell and the
unions will clear the field for him, as will the national Democratic unions...
Because primaries are a weak spot for Casey, and Santorum is a tough incumbent, he would need that kind of
rare coalition.
The Casey vs. Santorum speculation goes deeper than that. In 2000 and 2001 and 2002, a lot of people told
Casey his strategy was wrong and his campaign for governor was lacking.
The best listener in Pennsylvania politics was polite to them, as he always is, but completely ignored their
advice.
He remains furious at himself for turning off his brain and creating an input-free Cult of the Casey Campaign.
He knows his certainty then kept him from righting his campaign, or even seeing it accurately.
He is determined never to listen so badly and misunderstand an election so completely again.
In 2002, he did his best impression of his dad. Now he wants to be himself and is trying to figure out exactly
how to do that. Call it 50-50 that he runs for Senate.
That would leave Hafer and Singel at the head of the line of Baker Knoll challengers...
So a dump-Baker Knoll plan needs someone who can beat her in a primary by himself, with just some quiet
fund-raising help from Rendell.
And the person probably has to come from western Pennsylvania, so that geographical bias can't be used against
Rendell as an issue.
Which leaves, as far as insiders can see right now, two names: Hafer and Singel. Both could raise the money,
both are well-known from campaigns for governor and other offices, and both have lots of political friends. Hafer, of course,
beat Knoll's daughter in the general election in 2000 for treasurer.
Both come with major questions, too.
Singel's messy departure from Public Affairs Management to start his own firm--his old firm is suing him--to
fund his campaign could come back to haunt him.
A decade as a lobbyist would leave a lot of Singel bull's-eyes to aim at. Don't be surprised if some Republican
donors help Baker Knoll raise funds against a Rendell-quietly-favored challenger, to raise issues to use against Rendell in
the fall.
Hafer has never run as a Democrat. She says she is really looking at running only for U.S. Senate, and if
Casey does not make that race, that is her likely slot.
But if she does run against Baker Knoll, she will be asking a lot of western and eastern Democrats who never
voted for her to dump a loyal Democrat in her favor.
Peter L. DeCoursey, The Patriot News, Jan 23, 2005
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