ORANGE COUNTY VOICES

Los Angeles Times, Sunday, November 28, 1999

OCTA's Surveys on CenterLine May Not Tell the Whole Story

Questions and Answers in polls favoring a light rail system are suspect. We must all read between the lines.

by David Mootchnik

The Orange County Transportation Authority has conducted several opinion polls that seem to bolster its contention that the public strongly supports the CenterLine light rail system. Taken on face value several of the polls do just that. However, face value may not reveal the true nature of public opinion.

Several issues exist regarding any poll. First, did the format influence the answers. Second, did the respondents know what they were talking about. Third, were the answers truthful.

It is up to the pollster to address these issues and if not, then the burden is on the public and elected officials to question the veracity of the results. When evaluated the OCTA polls are suspicious.

Several people have attacked the use of leading questions to provide answers favorable to light rail in a recent OCTA survey. The survey responses were also suspect. For example, only 26 percent of those surveyed ever heard of the CenterLine yet 50 percent thought that the rail would not generate significant noise. One asks how they could have known? While only 16 percent indicated that building a new light rail was most important compared to 60 percent favoring freeways and roads, what was commonly quoted was from another question which (after a rail oriented preamble) showed 59 percent favored building the light rail.

In this same survey 60 percent said they would use the rail system and 15-18 percent indicated they would use the rail system often There are over 10 million trips taken each day in Orange County. These responses would indicate between 800,000 and 1,700,000 rail trips a day. But the OCTA projections (which tend to be inflated) predict at most 70,000 trips a day. Of course, with the latest proposal by the OCTA of a 12 mile system from Costa Mesa to Irvine, the daily ridership will be less than 20,000. In LA, with three established light rail lines and several times the population, the total daily count is about 100,000 per day. How do those surveyed come up such unrealistic responses?

The answer lies in the fact that the response the public gives to such questions is often more optimistic than realistic. While we cannot test this hypothesis on the yet-to-be-built rail line, other surveys provide good benchmarks for this assertion.

Every few years the Southern California Association of Governments conducts a survey titled, "The State of the Commute." Orange County commuters who do not have access to a carpool lane are asked whether HOV lane availability would encourage them to carpool to work. Fifty percent answer in the affirmative. But in Orange County 79 percent of commuters do have HOV availability and only 13 percent carpool. Worse yet, most of the carpoolers do so independent of the HOV lane. It is estimated that only about 2 percent of the commuters carpool because of the HOV lanes. One can speculate on the reason for the difference between the survey response of 50 percent and the reality of 2 percent. One answer may be that the results of the poll reflects peoples desires, rather than predicting their future actions. Particularly true for the 74 percent of those surveyed that never heard of the CenterLine. It also reflects the fact that the public does not have a real understanding of the situation.

The main message is that poll answers are often not reliable predictors of behavior. Pollsters know this and have the obligation to point out questionable results. More importantly the intended audience should be aware of these results and should then question the meaning of the entire poll.

The OCTA has been criticized for not providing the public or themselves with all the information on rail systems needed for an informed position. The board was elected to provide insight and guidance, and to make decisions in the publics best interest. They were not elected to rubber stamp evidence to support a pre-defined position. They should fairly and critically question all evidence presented to them. The OCTA is now addressing which of several alternatives, including the new 12 mile alternative that eliminates the North County cities, to promote. The question they should answer is whether a light rail should be built at all, not which of a myriad of alternate paths it should take. They should address how to achieve the most cost effective and useful public transportation and highway systems for the county.