Tennessee remains projected as the team with the best record now by 3 games over 5 others.

In the AFC, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo are all solidly division winners with Jacksonville, New England, and Baltimore vying for the wildcard at 9-7 and Denver and San Diego tied at 8-8 for the west.

In the NFC, Tampa, Washington, and Chicago would all win divisions at 11-5 with Arizona at 10-6 and Carolina the first wildcard. The second wildcard would come down to New York, Atlanta, and Philadelphia at 9-7.

In the AFC, three 9-7 teams would stay home and in the NFC, an 11-5 time will now stay home with Dallas, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and the Giants all vying for a division (South) and 2 wildcard slots.

The projected record is listed followed by the percent chance of that record, then the percent chance of finishing 1 game better than the chance of 1 game worse.

Team                Record        %   +1%  -1%    P
----------------------------------------------------
Tennessee         14 -  2 - 0   32.1 28.2 19.9   AS
Tampa_Bay         11 -  5 - 0   28.0 27.3 17.5   NS
Pittsburgh        11 -  5 - 0   26.2 26.2 16.8   AN
Buffalo           11 -  5 - 0   25.2 24.2 17.7   AE
Washington        11 -  5 - 0   28.2 20.4 23.8   NE
Chicago           11 -  5 - 0   30.3 17.9 27.5   NN
Carolina          10 -  6 - 0   26.0 25.7 16.9   N*
Arizona           10 -  6 - 0   25.9 23.1 19.3   NW
NY_Giants          9 -  7 - 0   24.0 23.7 16.5   N**
Atlanta            9 -  7 - 0   25.0 23.2 18.2   N**
Philadelphia       9 -  7 - 0   25.6 21.5 20.6   N**
Jacksonville       9 -  7 - 0   30.7 21.0 24.8   A**
New_England        9 -  7 - 0   24.9 19.8 21.5   A**
Baltimore          9 -  7 - 0   25.2 19.1 22.5   A**
Dallas             8 -  8 - 0   26.2 26.0 16.5
Green_Bay          8 -  8 - 0   29.3 25.7 19.4
San_Diego          8 -  8 - 0   27.6 24.8 19.1   AW*
NY_Jets            8 -  8 - 0   25.5 24.0 18.0
Indianapolis       8 -  8 - 0   27.6 21.8 21.9
Denver             8 -  8 - 0   26.9 19.5 23.8   AW*
Minnesota          8 -  8 - 0   27.5 17.5 26.3
New_Orleans        7 -  9 - 0   26.8 24.1 19.0
Miami              7 -  9 - 0   24.8 23.9 17.3
Cleveland          6 - 10 - 0   26.0 25.8 16.4
St_Louis           6 - 10 - 0   25.7 21.4 20.7
Oakland            6 - 10 - 0   25.9 18.5 24.0
Houston            5 - 11 - 0   29.2 21.8 23.5
San_Francisco      5 - 11 - 0   29.1 20.4 24.9
Seattle            4 - 12 - 0   24.9 24.4 16.5
Kansas_City        4 - 12 - 0   26.6 22.3 20.7
Cincinnati         2 - 14 - 0   32.9 23.6 24.0
Detroit            1 - 15 - 0   39.5 22.8 28.9

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Week 4