Assignment:  Time Series Graph

Produce a time series graph plotting a trend in a variable drawn from the Information and Communications or Science and Technology sections of the Statistical Abstract of the United States.  You may pick any variable that interests you within these sections IF you can find trends going back at least five years.  If you want to do something not in these sections, please check with me first.  I would prefer to have everybody fit into the theme of the course this semester.

You should end with the 2008 edition.  But to go back in time, you need to click on Earlier Editions to look for the same variable in the past.  If you cannot five at least five data points, please select a different variable.   You may find it useful to start with the earlier editions, say 2000, and choose a variable that appears to be from an annual source.

  **  for extra credit, plot two or three trends on the same graph.  This may require rescaling the variables **
    (you might set them to 2000 = 100, for example, by dividing them all by the value for 2000 and multiplying by 100)

Once you find your variable, open an excel spread sheet with year in the first column and your data series in the second.  Use four digits for the year, e.g., 1995, 1996, 1997, etc.  It is best to put in only the years for which you have data.  Enter your data in the second column.  If you do not have data for some years, leave the cell blank, do not put a zero.   Then use the draft wizard on Excel to make a scatter graph (not a line graph). 

We covered this in Methods of Research, at least if you took it from me.  But if not, I will illustrate it in class and there are some excellent instructions available online.

For an example of a related assignment, check the Property Crimes Excel file http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/propertycrime.xl   I am not asking you to compute a linear regression line, however.  Just examine the trend and write a descriptive paragraph telling whether the trend appears to be linear, exponential or something else.  If you know how and you can go ahead and do a linear projection if the trend you find appears to be linear.

Copy your completed graph into a Microsoft Word file and type the paragraph below it.  A sample of a finished Word file (from a similar assignment) is here.  You will not, however, have a "predicted" line (unless you choose to put one in).  If you have the statistical skills and think it warranted, you could do an exponential projection or put your graph on a logarithmic scale.  For examples of these kinds of graphs see Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns. 

Submit both the Excel and the Word file to the Assignment Box in Sakai.