Episcopal Church Statistics














Population vs ASA (1992-2004) | Idaho | Arizona | Oregon/E. Oregon | Nevada | Diocese of Los Angeles | Northern California and Washington (DC)




















Some facts about the Episcopal church attendance.

I am aware that quantity is not the sole, or even best measure of fruitfulness of the Church, but quantity does provide some information.
















In October titusonenine hosted a "fun with statistics" contest. (See http://titusonenine.classicalanglican.net/?p=15622 for the questions and discussion). It was so interesting that I thought I would pursue some of the issues that came up in the discussion. One prominent topic in the ensuing discussion was that it would be good to evaluate changes in average Sunday attendance with respect to the changes in the population. I have put together a data set that allows such analysis. Here are the results of slicing the data a few different ways.

If you have questions, comments, or thoughts on other ways to slice the data, feel free to email me at


 
==========================================================
1) The median change in ASA between 1992 and 2004 was -9%. The (unweighted) mean was -6.8%. The 10 dioceses with the biggest percentage declines in ASA, and the percentage change in population were:

             diocese    % ASA change  % pop change                                    
  1.            Rochester  -25.449   1.833                                      
  2.     Eastern Michigan  -23.872   6.919                                      
  3.     Central New York  -23.812  -2.927                                     
  4.     Western New York  -23.315  -3.013                                     
  5. Western Massachusett  -22.341   5.584                                      
  6.              Spokane  -22.162  20.932                                     
  7.         South Dakota  -19.907   8.738                                      
  8.                 Iowa  -19.895   5.201                                      
  9.    Northern Michigan  -19.885  -0.742                                     
 10.    Western Louisiana  -19.788   4.245    
 
To some degree, the declines in Central and Western New York reflect the drop in population. Spokane, on the other hand, had large declines in an area with a relatively fast-growing population (21st fastest of the 99 diocese considered).
 
==========================================================
2) The 10 dioceses with the fastest growing population between 1992 and 2004, and their change in ASA were:


                             % ASA  % pop
               diocese     change  change                                    
  1.               Nevada    9.053  75.314                                       
  2.              Arizona   -2.502  48.277                                      
  3.              Atlanta    9.370  39.609                                       
  4.               Dallas   25.553  35.815                                      
  5.      Central Florida   -8.995  34.663                                      
  6.                 Utah    7.316  32.897                                       
  7.             Colorado   -1.072  31.774                                      
  8.                Idaho    3.517  31.401                                       
  9.       North Carolina   10.215  31.127                                      
 10.    Southwest Florida  -11.527  29.392                                    

Nevada's ASA grew, but much less than the population explosion in Nevada. Central and Southwest Florida had significant declines, and Colorado a small decline, even as the population grew.
 
==========================================================
3) The 10 dioceses with the lowest population growth between 1992 and 2004, and their change in ASA were:

                             % ASA  % pop
               diocese     change  change                                    
  1.           Pittsburgh   -5.575  -3.273                                      
  2.     Western New York  -23.315  -3.013                                     
  3.     Central New York  -23.812  -2.927                                     
  4.               Quincy  -14.455  -2.019                                     
  5.    Northern Michigan  -19.885  -0.742                                     
  6. Northwestern Pennsyl  -15.989  -0.684                                     
  7.         North Dakota   -9.100   0.139                                       
  8.        West Virginia  -13.015   0.392                                      
  9.       Western Kansas  -15.480   1.001                                      
 10.               Albany  -10.405   1.623           

Pittsburgh's population shrunk more than any other diocese, but the ASA change was small relative to the population change when compared to the ASA change in other dioceses with negative or small population growth.
 
==========================================================
4) The top ten dioceses in terms of ASA growth, and their population change were:

                            % ASA  % pop
               diocese     change  change                                    
  1.       South Carolina  38.196  14.000                                      
  2.               Dallas  25.553  35.815                                      
  3.            Tennessee  24.042  25.461                                      
  4.                Texas  16.243  28.558                                      
  5. Western North Caroli  11.941  17.372                                      
  6.       North Carolina  10.215  31.127                                      
  7.           Rio Grande  10.125  18.119                                      
  8.            San Diego  10.055  14.763                                      
  9.              Atlanta   9.370  39.609                                       
 10.               Nevada   9.053  75.314      

South Carolina's ASA growth actually exceeded the population growth. Tennessee was close. Dallas had significant ASA growth, but even bigger population growth. The ASA growth in Atlanta and Nevada is small compared to the population growth.
 
==========================================================
5) The median ASA as a percentage of the population of a diocese is 0.25%; the unweighted mean is 0.29%. The dioceses with the highest percentage of the population in 2004 (and their percentage of the population in 1992, and percent change in ASA) were:

                  diocese  %pop2004 %pop1992  % ASA change                            
  1.             Virginia  0.861    1.010    8.907                                 
  2.       South Carolina  0.801    0.661   38.196                                
  3.               Easton  0.772    0.984   -6.879                                
  4.           Washington  0.638    0.796  -10.917                               
  5.         Rhode Island  0.636    0.832  -17.502                               
  6.          Connecticut  0.609    0.740  -12.067                               
  7.              Florida  0.566    0.676    5.440                                 
  8.    Southern Virginia  0.517    0.596   -4.175                                
  9.             Delaware  0.505    0.613   -0.804                                
 10.              Vermont  0.502    0.611  -10.499                               
 
Virginia has the largest share of the population. The ASA grew, but not as fast as the population, so the share of the population fell.

These are all eastern seaboard dioceses (Easton is the Eastern Shore of Maryland, Washington is Washington DC and the surrounding suburbs in Maryland.) The fact that the denomination has not penetrated very well west of the Atlantic coast might indicate a general lack of evangelical efforts historically. (Only Wyoming, ranked 11, is in the top 30 at 0.48%.)
 
==========================================================
6) Relative to the population, only 1 diocese grew: South Carolina, which increased from 0.66% to 0.80% of the population. The change in percentage of .14 points is a growth of 21% (that is 0.14/0.66). The (unweighted) mean was a decline of 0.06 percentage points, the median was a decline of 0.05 percentage points.

                                     diff   
                           % change  in %  % pop       % ASA      Rank by
                  diocese  in % pop  pop   change      change     % ASA change
  1.       South Carolina   21.225   0.140   14.000    38.196          1 
  2.            Tennessee  -1.131   -0.003   25.461    24.042          3 
  3.           Pittsburgh  -2.380   -0.007   -3.273    -5.575         39 
  4.              Alabama  -3.202   -0.011    9.688     6.176         14 
  5.            San Diego  -4.102   -0.012   14.763    10.055          8 
  6. Western North Caroli  -4.627   -0.021   17.372    11.941          5 
  7.           Rio Grande  -6.768   -0.017   18.119    10.125          7 
  8.               Kansas  -6.932   -0.019   10.115     2.482         21 
  9. Southwestern Virgini  -6.944   -0.027    5.232    -2.076         30 
 10.              Georgia  -7.165   -0.027   13.127     5.021         16 
 11.        East Carolina  -7.450   -0.031   16.627     7.939         12 
 12.               Dallas  -7.556   -0.028   35.815    25.553          2 
 13.             Kentucky  -7.573   -0.015    9.501     1.208         22 
 14.               Alaska  -8.279   -0.027   12.040     2.764         20 
 15.     Western Michigan  -8.547   -0.018   13.406     3.713         17 
 16.             New York  -8.618   -0.036   10.664     1.127         23 
 17.         North Dakota  -9.226   -0.014    0.139    -9.100         51 
 18.        Southern Ohio  -9.508   -0.018    6.876    -3.286         33 
 19.                Texas  -9.580   -0.036   28.558    16.243          4 
 20.           California  -11.157  -0.031    9.439    -2.771         32 
 21.            Louisiana  -11.581  -0.032    6.576    -5.767         40 
 22.               Albany  -11.836  -0.062    1.623    10.405         53 
 23.               Quincy  -12.693  -0.025   -2.019   -14.455         75 
 24.    Southern Virginia  -13.201  -0.079   10.399    -4.175         35 
 25.        West Virginia  -13.355  -0.033    0.392   -13.015         69 
 26.          Springfield  -13.769  -0.017    2.316   -11.772         63 
 27.          Mississippi  -14.436  -0.044   11.132    -4.911         37 
 28.             Virginia  -14.791  -0.149   27.812     8.907         11 
 29.                Maine  -14.853  -0.069    6.412    -9.393         52 
 30.             Oklahoma  -14.920  -0.033    9.967    -6.439         42 
 31.       El Camino Real  -15.317  -0.037   11.677    -5.429         38 
 32. Northwestern Pennsyl  -15.410  -0.042   -0.684   -15.989         80 
 33.       North Carolina  -15.948  -0.059   31.127    10.215          6 
 34. Upper South Carolina  -16.205  -0.069   18.542    -0.668         27 
 35.              Florida  -16.250  -0.110   25.898     5.440         15 
 36.       Western Kansas  -16.318  -0.038    1.001   -15.480         77 
 37.             Arkansas  -16.332  -0.037   14.866    -3.894         34 
 38.             Maryland  -16.777  -0.088   10.840    -7.756         47 
 39.       Eastern Oregon  -16.965  -0.054   24.846     3.666         18 
 40.              Olympia  -17.255  -0.052   21.185     0.274         25 
 41.             Delaware  -17.524  -0.107   20.272    -0.804         28 
 42.          Connecticut  -17.696  -0.131    6.839   -12.067         64 
 43.        Massachusetts  -17.776  -0.098    7.353   -11.730         62 
 44.          Los Angeles  -17.778  -0.026   16.214    -4.446         36 
 45.              Vermont  -17.864  -0.109    8.966   -10.499         54 
 46.   Central Gulf Coast  -18.350  -0.084   13.748    -7.125         44 
 47.              Wyoming  -18.657  -0.111    9.147   -11.216         59 
 48.       West Tennessee  -18.820  -0.060    9.885   -10.795         55 
 49.                 Utah  -19.249  -0.017   32.897     7.316         13 
 50.    Northern Michigan  -19.287  -0.064   -0.742   -19.885         91 
 51.                 Ohio  -19.378  -0.039    1.768   -17.953         87 
 52.             Nebraska  -19.421  -0.052    9.067   -12.115         65 
 53.            Bethlehem  -19.579  -0.052    8.459   -12.776         68 
 54.           Washington  -19.829  -0.158   11.117   -10.917         56 
 55.         Pennsylvania  -19.918  -0.114    4.134   -16.608         83 
 56.            Lexington  -19.985  -0.041   11.075   -11.123         57 
 57.          Fond du Lac  -20.041  -0.040   11.067   -11.191         58 
 58.       East Tennessee  -20.399  -0.063   16.023    -7.644         46 
 59.      Northwest Texas  -20.440  -0.048    4.520   -16.844         84 
 60.             Michigan  -20.759  -0.059    2.893   -18.466         88 
 61.     Western New York  -20.933  -0.096   -3.013   -23.315         96 
 62.                Idaho  -21.220  -0.047   31.401     3.517         19 
 63.           Fort Worth  -21.476  -0.083   28.547     0.940         24 
 64.     Central New York  -21.515  -0.102   -2.927   -23.812         97 
 65.               Easton  -21.528  -0.212   18.668    -6.879         43 
 66.  Northern California  -21.595  -0.044   19.759    -6.103         41 
 67.              Atlanta  -21.660  -0.073   39.609    9.370          9 
 68.         Indianapolis  -21.665  -0.033   11.851   -12.382         67 
 69.            Milwaukee  -21.761  -0.048    8.802   -14.874         76 
 70.          Long Island  -22.042  -0.067   10.241   -14.058         71 
 71.           West Texas  -22.477  -0.067   28.441    -0.428         26 
 72.             Missouri  -22.612  -0.044    8.056   -16.377         81 
 73.           New Jersey  -22.700  -0.109   13.584   -12.199         66 
 74.               Newark  -22.860  -0.075    8.128   -16.589         82 
 75. Central Pennsylvania  -22.972  -0.065    7.713   -17.030         85 
 76.    Western Louisiana  -23.055  -0.061    4.245   -19.788         90 
 77.               Hawaii  -23.107  -0.081    9.757   -15.605         79 
 78.              Chicago  -23.253  -0.049   12.356   -13.770         70 
 79.         Rhode Island  -23.563  -0.196    7.930   -17.502         86 
 80.               Oregon  -23.831  -0.072   20.190    -8.453         49 
 81.                 Iowa  -23.855  -0.039    5.201   -19.895         92 
 82.              Montana  -24.033  -0.069   12.704   -14.382         74 
 83.        New Hampshire  -24.117  -0.116   16.751   -11.406         60 
 84.           Eau Claire  -24.596  -0.036   12.040   -15.517         78 
 85.     Northern Indiana  -24.652  -0.037    7.783   -18.787         89 
 86.            Minnesota  -24.658  -0.056   13.978   -14.127         72 
 87.             Colorado  -24.926  -0.094   31.774    -1.072         29 
 88.        West Missouri  -25.393  -0.060   14.763   -14.379         73 
 89.         South Dakota  -26.343  -0.120    8.738   -19.907         93 
 90. Western Massachusett  -26.448  -0.147    5.584   -22.341         95 
 91.    Southeast Florida  -26.734  -0.091   26.410    -7.385         45 
 92.            Rochester  -26.791  -0.126    1.833   -25.449         99 
 93.          San Joaquin  -26.945  -0.041   25.498    -8.317         48 
 94.     Eastern Michigan  -28.799  -0.046    6.919   -23.872         98 
 95.    Southwest Florida  -31.624  -0.171   29.392   -11.527         61 
 96.      Central Florida  -32.420  -0.169   34.663    -8.995         50 
 97.              Arizona  -34.246  -0.095   48.277    -2.502         31 
 98.              Spokane  -35.635  -0.086   20.932   -22.162         94 
 99.               Nevada  -37.796  -0.061   75.314     9.053         10 


As discussed on the titusonenine blog, looking at the ASA relative to population change presents a very different picture. South Carolina is a growing diocese no matter how examined. But Pittsburgh, a slightly shrinking diocese, is doing very well when considering the population decline in the area. Nevada, which grew, is at the bottom in relative growth.


==========================================================
7) Here is how the 11 ACN dioceses did relative to their population change. The number on the left is the rank when sorted by percent change in percent population.

                                     diff   
                           % change  in %  % pop  % pop
                  diocese  in % pop  pop   2004   1992
  1.       South Carolina   21.225   0.140  0.801  0.661                         
  3.           Pittsburgh   -2.380  -0.007  0.288  0.295                        
  7.           Rio Grande   -6.768  -0.017  0.229  0.245                        
 12.               Dallas   -7.556  -0.028  0.341  0.369                        
 22.               Albany  -11.836  -0.062  0.458  0.520                       
 23.               Quincy  -12.693  -0.025  0.169  0.194                       
 26.          Springfield  -13.769  -0.017  0.103  0.120                       
 36.       Western Kansas  -16.318  -0.038  0.193  0.230                       
 63.           Fort Worth  -21.476  -0.083  0.302  0.385                       
 93.          San Joaquin  -26.945  -0.041  0.111  0.153                       
 96.      Central Florida  -32.420  -0.169  0.353  0.522                       
                                                              
 
 The averages percent change in percent of population by ACN affiliation:
        Not ACN -18.58384                                                        
        ACN     -11.90327   
ACN dioceses are doing not doing as bad as non-ACN TEC dioceses.

The Average Sunday Attendance (ASA) data was downloaded from
Stand Firm
http://www.standfirminfaith.com/media/ECUSA_1992-2004_attendance.xls. The 1994-2004 data is available as a pdf from the official Episcopal church website: http://www.dfms.org/research_28437_ENG_HTM.htm.
 
The population data is derived from census county-level annual estimates of population. Each county was assigned to a diocese. The assignments were determined by reviewing the public information on diocesan websites (To Dale Rye: Texas was a pain, but not the worst--at least they clearly define the boundaries).  A few disclaimers:
--Navaholand is omitted, so there are only 99 dioceses considered. I could not figure out what its geographical boundaries are. The area is attributed to the respective states.
--there are a few counties that are split amongst two dioceses. I did not split the county, but assigned it to one of the dioceses. The most significant is Riverside County in California, which is split between LA and San Diego. I assigned the whole county to LA. There are a few others, but they are minor.
--I had to make some guesses about the counties in a few dioceses. For example, Oregon and Eastern Oregon are defined by the summit of the Cascade mountains. Though that might be common knowledge in Oregon, it isn't where I live.