2008 Capital Baseball Draft Review

by Matt
 

            To get a head start on things, I’m going to delve in early this year.  It may not be as organized, but I wanted to write a few things while they were fresh in my head.   I thought this was one of the weakest and thinnest draft pools in a long time.  There were six typical first round picks, who went accordingly.  From there, I only liked Cueto as a true first rounder and the next twenty guys or so were pretty even as second round talent.  The pool was very deep in pitching, especially lefties and bullpen, with few good offensive cards to help out now.  There will be less criticism in the analysis this year, because many of the picks were based on needs and debatable futures.

Ungulates:  Not wanting to draft at the top of the pool of twenty or so second round talents, I traded picks #8 and 10 for Justin Upton and Corey Hart, who I liked better than the potential talent I could draft here.   I had plenty of starter innings and generally dislike using #1’s on prospect-only pitchers or low ceiling usable pitching cards.  I also received Aaron Harang for pick #29 the way I see it.  I’ll take a proven veteran who I hope can come back over the likes of Max Scherzer and Jorge Campillo, who were the next starters selected after that pick.   I also turned two #2 picks into #1’s for next year.  Although I had a solid core, I had glaring weaknesses that the draft could not fill well enough to challenge the Norristown Zips, in my opinion.  Few great cards were available in the trade market, either.  Rather than take a shot at some one year cards, I continued to build franchise.    I needed long term help at 3B, C, 1B, LH power, an infielder, and bullpen.

After drafting Evan Longoria, the consensus #1 who I think deserves a 1 at third base this year, I finally picked at #36.  Catcher represents my weakest short term position.  First base, especially from the right side, needs a longer term solution.   With nothing available early to satisfy those needs, I spoke to Jordan about Conor Jackson but was pleasantly surprised to see Pablo Sandoval still available at #36.   Sandoval could be this year’s Geovany Soto or something much less.   Either way I get a great pinch hitter off the bench for catcher and 1B in the persona of a 22-year-old who hits for great average.  We’ll see if he develops power, but a friend of mine scores many Bay area games and called Sandoval’s bat “among the quickest I’ve ever seen.”  So at this point of the draft, I was ecstatic to find a perfect fit for now and the future.  At pick #41, I took the best available player, Jed Lowrie, who I had projected to be gone a round earlier.   With a full roster, I kept in mind versatility this draft.   I needed some infield help, including a guy who could play third.   I’m not sure Lowrie will ever be a superstar, but John Sickels rated him the tenth best hitter in the minors last year, second best available in the draft.   He has great plate patience, decent defense and power, so he should be a usable infielder for a long, long time.  He may start at SS in beantown this year.   The last SS I picked at the beginning of the third round was named Tulowitzki.   Let’s hope I’ve struck gold again. 

I patiently waited until pick #74 and selected Jorge de la Rosa.   Another high risk/high reward selection, de la Rosa gave me 130 IP in the bullpen, which will save me a roster spot.  Jorge still struck out nearly a batter an inning and had an ERA of 2.44 the final two months of the season.   After desperately attempting to trade up for two rounds, I finally acquired pick #106 to select JR Towles.   Towles was a top 50 prospect on most lists last year.    While he struggled in his first taste of the bigs, it’s hard to find .300 hitting catchers with all the tools who will only turn 25 soon.   In the sixth round, I’ll take my chance.  With picks #125 and 126, I selected longtime Terror Mike Gonzalez as a LH closer.  His high risk/high reward card (low OBP with lots of diamonds) will fit right in my bullpen with similar hurlers Morrow and Petit.  I felt Kendry Morales was one of the steals of the draft.   With Teixeira a free agent, he could take over at first.  More likely, he’ll get some DH or OF at-bats in an aging lineup.   This guy is 25 and hit .341 in AAA last year with a career .337 minor league batting average and .546 slugging. In the seventh round on a team with Mike Jacobs and Richie Sexson at first base… ‘nuff said.  In the last round I handcuffed Sandoval with John Bowker, who at 25 has shown the ability to both hit for average and power in the minors.   If Sandoval needs more seasoning or spends some time behind the plate (let’s hope!), Bowker should do a decent job.  Finally, I drafted a power lefty reliever I’ve always liked Bill Bray for additional bullpen innings.  Not sure how much stuff Bray has since surgery, but he struck out 10.7 guys per nine innings last year.  He also gave me over 330 bullpen innings for the year for those of you keeping score.  Best Pick:  Kendry Morales.  Worst Pick:  Bowker.

Bombers: The Beast of the East, Mitch was short in picks due to his recent playoff runs.    Finally able to select at pick #43, he took a great OF bench card in Daniel Murphy.  Murphy’s stock rose this year when he suddenly developed some power.   His card will be great, but it remains to be seen how his transition from 3B to the OF will progress.   In a pick acquired in a predraft trade, Will Ohman became a Bomber.   Ohman seems underrated and should have a solid card out of the bullpen.  Two picks later, Mitch tabbed Willy Aybar from the Rays.   Aybar helps at a few infield positions and hopes for a trade this offseason to nab an everyday position.   Always teasing us with powerful Septembers, Nelson Cruz was a nice longshot in the sixth round.  Cruz is no longer a prospect, but could be a Ryan Ludwick-type late bloomer if given the opportunity  for extended AB’s.  In the seventh, Mitch took Yanks Darrell Rasner and Alfredo Aceves, who has a K/BB ratio over 4 in his minor league career.  In the eighth, Mitch followed the same formula with lefty Eric Stults, who had a K/BB ratio over 3 last year, and former stud prospect Craig Hansen.  Best Value: Cruz   Worst Value:  Rasner.

Mitts:  Looking at pitchers, Larry selected John Lannan at pick #18.   A soft tossing lefty with poor command of the strike zone, I felt this was a reach with the abundance of lefty starters out there. I liked Manny Parra (3^rd round) and Dana Eveland (4^th round) better.  With Justin Masterson and Max Scherzer still on the board, I would have given up the innings and taken the upside.    Masterson went with the next pick to the Dream, and Larry promptly traded for him.  The Mitts needed a closer so Joel Hanrahan was the second round choice.  I had to consult my archives as no prospect books referenced him last year.  He apparently lost his mechanics but developed a slider/cutter that caused a switch to the bullpen.  Apparently it agreed with him, as he has a decent card if he avoids the longball.  I still would rather have had a Grant Balfour, JP Howell, or Frank Francisco card and take my chances with the closer rating in the first and Manny Parra in round 2.  Parra did stay in the family, going to Jordan.  Mike Adams nice card was a steal in Round 5.  Ditto for career utilityman Ramon Vazquez, who may land a starting gig in Arizona.  Jose Veras will provide a nice hard righty in the bullpen.  I’ve liked Wil Ledezma  since his Detroit days, but he always disappoints me.  Aaron Cunningham suddenly added power to his high batting average game in Double-A.  He could end up a Ryan Sweeney-type.  Nice find for the final round.  Best:  Adams.  Worst:  Lannan.

Whiz Kids:  I always like Jordan’s drafts but the talent never seems to gel at the same time to provide that breakthrough season.  This year I didn’t love it, so maybe his luck will reverse.  Jordan needed pitching in the worst way.  At the twelfth pick, he selected Clayton Kershaw.  Now all the scouting rankings will reinforce the validity of this pick, so I’m in the minority.   I’ve often said I hate speculating on young pitchers with #1 picks unless they have a great card I know I get to use.   Kershaw’s talent is second to none, but he has to be healthy, effective, and get righties out at an extreme to justify this pick.   I had Clay Bucholz rated one step higher because he has similar talent from the right side.  I wouldn’t have taken either in the first round, but that’s due solely to my philosophy on young starters.  In round 2, Jordan took decent quality innings in Jorge Campillo.   His card will be OK for this year, but I wouldn’t expect much in the future from this 30 year old.  You will see more from Manny Parra, however.  I knew this guy would slide a bit, but he’s nearly as talented as any pitcher in the draft.  Fernando Tatis had a great year for the Mets, and his card lasted a long time in Round 5.  The name Charlie Morton sounds like it belongs to a 50 year old.  He’s actually half that age and finally discovered some minor league success when he decided to throw the ball over the plate.  He got ripped in the majors, however, with an ERA over 6.  Everyday Eddie Guardado will get some lefties out for the Kids.  Lance Cormier has yet to control the strike zone at the major league level.  He does keep the ball in the park, though.    Best Value:  Manny Parra   Worst Value:  Jorge Campillo

Zips:  In the prime of his juggernaut, Mike got his fifth starter in veteran Todd Wellemeyer.   He has low on base but will struggle with dingers.  I might have taken Chris Volstad for a better future and part time card and taken my chances with Daniel Cabrera or a later pick for a few starts.  Mike then traded next year’s #1 for Grant Balfour, arguably the best bullpen card in the draft.  When you have a shot at the top, these are the kinds of moves that make the difference.   Rod Barajas was an extreme need pick based on Randy’s earlier selection of Jason Kendall.  I saw this shortage before the draft and traded a pick in this area for Ramon Hernandez, a starter with the equivalent card of Barajas on both sides instead of only versus righthanders.  Octavio Dotel was a nice value at pick 81.  He will have a ton of strikeouts on his card and few on base chances if he can avoid the diamonds.  These type of cards actually yield success but few of us have the guts to use them.  JA Happ has a nice card for a fellow fifth rounder, and a future.  Fernando Perez could emerge as a good speed/good glove OF if the Rays fail to improve their RF position.  Best Value: JA Happ    Worst Value:  Rod Barajas.